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PERM Timeline Tracker User Manual

PERM Timeline Tracker User Manual

Welcome to the PERM Timeline Tracker user manual! This guide is designed to help employees with PERM applications in progress understand and effectively use the website (permtimeline.com). Whether you are new to PERM processes or looking for specific insights, this manual will guide you through the key features page by page.

Main Pages of the Tracker

Homepage

The homepage provides a comprehensive overview of PERM processing trends, broken into five main sections:

1. Submission Month Case Status Rates

This section displays the number and percentage of PERM cases in various statuses for each submission month, along with a total row for all months combined.

Key Features:

  • Filter by Status: Use checkboxes to include or exclude statuses from total calculations.
  • Show All Submission Months: Expand the view to include data for all submission months, not just the months currently under review by the DOL.

Metrics Explained:

  • Total Applications: The total number of applications across all statuses.
  • Total Changes Today: The number of applications with status updates today.
  • Total Completed Today: The number of applications moved to final statuses ('Certified', 'Certified Revoked', 'Denied', or 'Withdrawn') today.
  • Pending Applications: The number of applications still under review, excluding those in final statuses.

Each metric includes percentages to provide additional context. For example, "Pending Applications: 185,141 (80.60%)" means 80.6% of all applications are still under review.

"See Cases" Button:

Click this button to navigate to the PERM Case Advanced Search page, where you can refine the search criteria for a deeper analysis.

2. Daily Progress Statistics

This bar chart illustrates the number of cases approved, audited, or denied in recent days.

How to Use:

  • Zoom and Pan: Focus on specific dates of interest.
  • Hover for Details: View submission day breakdowns for each bar.
  • Legend Interaction: Click on legend items to hide or show specific bars. Dates in cyan represent weekends or federal holidays.

3. Number of Days for Approval (Last 30 Days)

This table highlights processing times for cases approved in the past 30 days, excluding audited cases.

How to Interpret:

  • Percentiles: For example, "30% percentile ≤ 453 days" indicates that 30% of approved cases were processed in 453 days or less.
  • Insights: Compare percentile values to understand trends in processing speed.

4. Priority Date Wise Statistics

This chart provides a breakdown of cases by their priority date (the date the PERM application was submitted to the DOL).

Chart Details:

  • Stacked Bars: Show the number of cases for each submission date, categorized by status.
  • Line Graph: Tracks the fastest and slowest processing times for each submission date.
  • Interactivity: Zoom, pan, and toggle legend items for customized views.

How to Interpret Fastest and Slowest Processing Times:

  • These values provide the lower and upper bounds of processing times for each submission date. By observing trends, you can estimate your own application's processing time.
  • If the bounds for a submission month have increased compared to the previous month, you can add the same difference to the current bounds to estimate the range for your specific submission date.

5. Telegram Demo

The Telegram Demo shows the latest messages from our Telegram group, a great source to stay up-to-date with news about PERM and EB green card processes. Joining the group is highly recommended to connect with others, ask questions, and follow the latest updates. This group provides valuable real-time discussions and insights that complement the website.

PERM Case Query

The PERM Case Query page enhances the DOL's official Case Status Search by providing detailed insights and visualizations for individual cases.

Features:

  1. Case Details:
  • View the employer name, job title, and other critical details.
  • Tip: Check for leading spaces in the employer name, as this may affect processing order due to alphabetical sorting.
  1. Case Progress Timeline:
  • Displays a timeline of all status changes for the queried case.
  1. Status Distribution Charts:
  • Three pie charts summarize case statuses:
  • Within the same block as the queried case.
  • For the same employer and submission month.
  • For the same job title and submission month.
  • How to Use: If your case is in "Analyst Review," these charts help estimate the probability of your case transitioning to each possible status soon.
  1. Estimated Adjudication Time:

  • A newly added Estimated Adjudication Time feature provides a predictive estimate of when a case might be adjudicated. This estimate is based on historical adjudication trends and follows a lognormal distribution model, which reflects the natural variability in case processing times.

  • How It Works: The system calculates the median estimated wait time (T_est) in days for a given case. A variability factor (σ) is determined from past adjudicated cases to account for processing time fluctuations. The estimate is displayed as a table and two charts, showing the probability distribution of adjudication dates.

  • Important Notes:

    • Based on extensive data analysis, it appears that the decision to begin adjudicating a new submission month is made manually, with no consistent pattern.
    • For submission months that are not yet under active review, this estimate assumes the latest observed adjudication rate will continue.
    • Data suggests that adjudication times within a given month follow a lognormal distribution.

  • How to Read the Table:

    • The table provides the probability that this case will be adjudicated on or before the estimated date.
    • 30% Probability: The case is likely to be adjudicated on or before this date.
    • 50% Probability (Median): The case has a 50% chance of being adjudicated by this date.
    • 80% Probability: The case is highly likely to be adjudicated on or before this date.
    • Example: If the estimated adjudication date for 50% is Apr/4/2025, it means there is a 50% chance that this case will be adjudicated on or before Apr/4/2025.

  • Charts Overview

    • Probability Density Function (PDF):
    • Shows how likely different adjudication times are.
    • Peaks at the most probable waiting time.
    • Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF):
    • Represents the cumulative probability of adjudication by a given date.
    • The curve increases over time; as the time passes, there is more chance that the case is adjudicated.

  • ⚠️ Important Considerations: While this estimate provides valuable insights, it should not be used as a guarantee of when a case will be processed.

    • Cases that require additional scrutiny, such as RFIs (Requests for Information), may take significantly longer than estimated.

    • Adjudication trends can shift based on DOL processing policies and workload.

    🚀 This feature is experimental and subject to future updates based on new data and user feedback.

  1. Employer Name Range Summary:
  • Shows the distribution of cases for employers with similar names, helping predict adjudication likelihood based on alphabetical order trends.

URL Sharing:

When you search for a case, the URL updates to include the case number as a query parameter. For example: https://permtimeline.com/perm_query?caseNumber=G-100-23263-362498.

This feature is useful in two ways:

  1. Revisit Your Query: Open the link directly to reload the case details without re-entering the case number.
  2. Share Cases: Share interesting cases with others for discussion or insights.

PERM Case Advanced Search

The PERM Case Advanced Search page lets you filter and explore the database using multiple criteria.

Filters:

  • Employer Name: Case-insensitive and starts with the entered text by default. For example, "app" will include "APPLE INC." and "Apps Solutions Inc." and not "Sapphire Software Solutions". To match any part of the name, prepend a % to the query (e.g., %app will match "Sapphire Software Solutions" as well).
  • Job Title: Works similarly to employer name, using a starts-with filter by default.
  • Case Status: Filter by specific statuses.
  • Case Number: Search for a particular case.
  • Keyword Search: Look for specific terms within case details.
  • Submission/Update Date Range: Define start and end dates (inclusive).

Combining Filters:

You can combine multiple filters to narrow your search. For example, searching by employer name and submission date simultaneously provides more targeted results.

Results:

  • Displayed in a sortable table with columns:
  • Case Number
  • Employer Name
  • Job Title
  • Case Status
  • Submission Date
  • Last Update

Default View:

When no filters are applied, the page displays the 1,000 latest 'Certified' cases by default, providing a quick snapshot of recent certifications.

URL Sharing:

The URL updates to include your search criteria as query parameters. For example: https://permtimeline.com/perm_search?employer=app&jobTitle=&caseStatus=Certified&startDate=2023-06-01&endDate=2024-12-15.

This feature is helpful in two ways:

  1. Revisit Searches: Save the link to reload the exact same filter criteria later.
  2. Share Search Results: Share the URL with others to highlight specific data or trends.

Query Limitations:

  • Default Limit: A maximum of 100 rows is returned.
  • Increased Limit for Telegram Users: Logged-in users with a Telegram account can query up to 300 rows. This encourages users to install Telegram and join the group for additional benefits.

Employer Statistics

The Employer Statistics page provides insights into PERM timelines grouped by employer.

Sections:

  1. Today Top Employers

The Today Top Employers table provides a snapshot of employer activity for PERM applications updated today.

What Does the Table Show?

The table lists employers whose PERM applications have seen status changes today. It includes the following columns:

  1. Employer Name: The name of the employer. This column is clickable and links to the PERM Case Advanced Search page with pre-filled filters for the selected employer, submission date range, and today's updates.

  2. Certified: The number of cases certified or certified revoked for the employer today.

  3. Denied: The number of cases denied for the employer today.

  4. Withdrawn: The number of cases withdrawn for the employer today.

  5. RFI Issued: The number of cases where a "Request for Information" (RFI) was issued today.

  6. Total Updates Today: The total number of status updates for the employer today, including changes not captured in the other columns (e.g., reversion to "Analyst Review" or updates to "NOAD Issued"). By focusing on this column, you can get a comprehensive view of an employer's activity that might not be apparent from the more specific columns alone.

How to Use the Table?

  • Month Selector: At the top of the table, you can select a submission month to view data for employers whose applications were submitted during that month. The default selection is the current month.
  • Sortable Columns: Click on any column header to sort the data in ascending or descending order.
  • Pagination: At the bottom of the table, you can navigate between pages, adjust the number of rows displayed (10, 20, or 50), and view the total number of rows.

Why is This Table Useful?

This table provides real-time insights into employer-level PERM activity, helping you:

  • Identify employers with significant status updates today.
  • Understand the DOL's processing trends and activity patterns with regard to the employers.
  • Quickly drill down into case-level details for any employer using the advanced search feature.
  1. Priority Month & Employer Initial Wise Statistics (New Chart): A newly added interactive chart provides a detailed breakdown of cases by both the submission month and the employer’s initial character.

Features:

  • Stacked Bars: Show case counts for various statuses (e.g., Certified, Denied, etc.) within each priority month and employer initial group.
  • Fastest & Slowest Approval Lines: Display the fastest and slowest processing times per group to help visualize trends.
  • Interactivity: Zoom, pan, and toggle legend items. You can quickly identify patterns in processing times, giving you a clearer expectation of your case’s timeline based on where your employer’s name fits in the alphabetical order and submission month.

X-Axis Explanation:

Each label on the x-axis represents a unique combination of:

  • Priority Month: The month and year in which the PERM applications were submitted to the DOL (e.g., "Sep2023").
  • Employer Initial: The first character of the employer’s name (e.g., "A", "B", "C"). Together, these form entries like "Sep2023_'A'" or "Jun2024_'M'", indicating all cases submitted in September 2023 by employers whose names start with 'A', or June 2024 by employers whose names start with 'M'.
  1. Search Cases By Employer:
  • Employer Name: Enter an employer’s name to view related statistics.
  • Job Title (Optional): Narrow the search further by specifying a job title.
  • Submission Date Range: Define start and end dates (inclusive).
  1. Employer Initials Approvals:
  • Displays tables grouped by submission month and employer initials.
  • Processed Count: Total cases in 'Certified', 'Certified Revoked', or 'Denied' statuses.
  • Total Count: All cases excluding those in 'Withdrawn' status.

Why Grouping by Initials is Useful:

This highlights how the DOL processes applications in batches by employer, often in alphabetical order. Observing this trend helps you estimate when your application might be adjudicated based on where it falls in the alphabet. While exceptions exist, this general pattern is a reliable guide for timing predictions.

By leveraging these statistics and the new chart, you gain valuable insights into the processing patterns of the DOL, enabling more informed predictions about your application’s progress.

This manual is designed to help you navigate and make the most of the PERM Timeline Tracker.